insurance healthcare market in 2018-2019
Ngành bảo hiểm toàn cầu sẽ tăng trưởng mạnh hơn nền kinh tế toàn cầu vào năm 2018 và 2019. Năm nay và năm tới, chúng tôi dự kiến phí bảo hiểm toàn cầu sẽ tăng hơn 460 tỷ Euro.
Ngành bảo hiểm toàn cầu sẽ tăng trưởng mạnh hơn nền kinh tế toàn cầu vào năm 2018 và 2019. Năm nay và năm tới, chúng tôi dự kiến phí bảo hiểm toàn cầu sẽ tăng hơn 460 tỷ euro. Con số này tương đương với mức tăng trưởng trung bình hàng năm là 5,3% (theo thực tế, được điều chỉnh theo lạm phát: 3,7%), trong khi GDP toàn cầu dự kiến chỉ tăng 4,9% (3,3% theo thực tế). Bảo hiểm nhân thọ, đặc biệt, được thiết lập để trở lại mức tăng trưởng cao hàng năm mạnh mẽ 5,6% (3,9% về thực) sau một năm 2017 yếu. Bảo hiểm tài sản - thương vong được hưởng lợi từ môi trường kinh tế hiện tại thuận lợi. Trong phân khúc này, chúng tôi kỳ vọng tốc độ tăng trưởng hàng năm gần 5% (3,3% theo thực tế). Các nước mới nổi là những động lực tăng trưởng chính, nhưng tỷ lệ tăng trưởng mạnh hơn ở các nước công nghiệp có khối lượng lớn cũng góp phần vào sự phát triển tích cực này.
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The long-term outlook for the insurance industry is even more pleasing. In 2030, we expect premium volume to be close to €8tn – almost double what it is today.
China is of particular importance in this long-term perspective, with almost one-third of the additional premium income forecast between 2018 and 2030 being generated there.
The currently much discussed InsurTechs will play a rather subordinate part in market growth. While we think that innovative start-ups may lead to something of a surge in premium growth in emerging markets and developing countries, we are not really expecting additional premium income in the
Property-casualty insurance should benefit from the positive economic trend. In 2018/2019, we expect
In the USA and Western Europe, growth rates of between 3.5% and 4% (around 2% in real terms) should be achieved – slightly up
In the emerging markets, we are expecting high growth rates of 9.5% on average (7.9% in real terms) for 2018/2019. In some Latin American markets – Brazil especially – the economic recovery should have a positive impact on property-casualty premiums. We project that growth in this region will come to around 6% (4% in real terms) in 2018/2019. In the Middle East and North Africa, we are anticipating a high level of stable growth, and in sub-Saharan Africanormalisation should follow extraordinarily strong growth in 2017 as a result of the improved economic environment and significant rate increases in South Africa.
We expect to see declining growth rates in Eastern Europe and also in the emerging markets of Asia, where the forecasts are largely dependent on developments in China. Although average growth there should be very high at 14% (in real terms, still in double digits at close to 11%), this is likely to slowly flatten – in line with the economic trend.
Life insurance is generally subject to greater fluctuations than property-casualty insurance, due to single-premium business in particular. Overall, following weak growth in 2017, we are therefore expecting growth rates to normalize at an average of 5.6% (3.9% in real terms) over the next two years.
The USA and China are the drivers of this trend. According to provisional figures, in 2017 premiums in the USA fell by more than 4% in real terms. The reason for this was a decline in annuity business due to political and regulatory uncertainties. For 2018 and 2019 – supported by rising interest rates – we are expecting a return to positive growth, with a significant impact on global figures.
With a global market share of close to 20%, the USA is currently the most important life insurance market. China already ranks third behind the USA and Japan, with a market share of over 12%. Given the catch-up potential that continues to be seen here, it is no wonder that China’s high growth rates of almost 20% (over 15% in real terms) are also an important driver for global premium growth. In Western Europe and the developed markets of Asia, we project moderate growth as a result of sustained
Prospects are also good for the long-term outlook. In 2030,
What is striking is that – despite years of sustained high growth – China still ranks third among the strongest growth markets. All the other top growth markets have a significantly lower market share of below 3%. Besides China, other emerging markets in Asia – India and Indonesia, for example – are among the top growth markets, which means that between now and 2030 the region is expected to have average growth rates of well over 9% (7.2% in real terms) in property-casualty insurance and slightly over 10% (8.0% in real terms) in life insurance.
However, as insurance penetration (premiums in % of GDP) in China is currently already high, the strong growth rates are likely to level off over the next few years, which is why we are forecasting real growth of between 5% and 6% as from 2025. In the other emerging markets of Asia, as well as in many African countries, we are nevertheless expecting the catch-up process to continue for quite some time, given the currently very low level of development of the insurance markets there.
In saturated markets, i.e. the
Although InsurTechs, in their role as digital brokers, constitute competition for traditional sales channels – which could lead to a shift in market shares – the overall impact on premium volume across the market is most likely to be quite small in the
What is more, InsurTech start-ups benefit from the achievements of FinTech companies, as new financial technologies also allow insurers’ product ranges to be expanded, alternative sales channels to be created and additional groups of clients to be reached.